Congratulations to the U.S. but wait till the Olympics

Well as expected the Canada/U.S. game today at the World Jr. Hockey Championships in Saskatchewan was great! I was on the edge of my seat the whole game and out of it at the end of the 3rd period. The Canadian boys have no reason to hang their heads. They had a good tournament. They were outplayed in the last two games. The Americans deserved the win. I thought the Canadians were lucky to get the win in the game before and they would have been very lucky if they had won this one. U.S. earned the gold medals.

Now I'm not one to say, "I told you so," but... Okay, yes, I am one. So I'm now gonna. If you read my blog entry about the Canadian Olympic team you will see where I mentioned two things that I am noticing this year and that are changing hockey for those teams who pick up on them. One is the fact that the big, booming shot from the point is fast becoming a thing of the past because of all the players dropping in front of pucks. Shot blockers are better, and more to the point, faster than slap shot takers. The wind up gives shot blockers plenty of time to drop down and get in the way. I said that the wrist shot from the point is better for 3 reasons: 1. It's tougher for shot blockers to drop in front of because it takes virtually no time to get the shot away. 2. It's easier for teammates of the wrist shooter to tip the puck into the net because the speed is just a bit slower. 3. It's still just as hard for a goalie to stop a deflected wrist shot because the reduction in speed makes a direct shot easier to stop, but not a deflected one. Unless we're talking about a really BIG difference in speed, which we're not.

We saw this all game long. It was the story of the game really. Team Canada all tournament long had been taking wrist shots from the point and tipping them in with regularity. Probably because of adrenalyn, this game they were going more for the big wind-up slap shots and the U.S. team were blocking them with regularity.

The second thing I mentioned in that blog entry was how dangerous a right handed shot on the left wing can be. Take a look at the last three goals of the game. The 5-4 goal and the 5-5 goal by Jordan Eberle, (a right hander one-timing a shot from the left wing), had me jumping up and down here! I'm sure all over Canada it was the same. Then in O.T. if I'm not mistaken the game winning goal for the States was scored by a right handed shooter coming down the left wing.

I'm telling you, it will be NO different in the Olympics. These things will STILL be MAJOR goal generators and the teams that miss out might be going home. It's too early to tell who will be linemates for the Olympic teams so there's no way to know who will have the dangerous right handed left wingers but I'd be willing to bet, especially on the power play, the Fins will take advantage of this by putting Teemu Selanne on the left side getting set up by his teammate Saku Koivu.

Canada has the possibility of setting this up. They got Bergeron on the team because of his phenomenal chemistry with Crosby at '04 World Jrs and '06 World Championships. I think Gerome Iginla will play on a line with those two so either Iginla or Bergeron will be a right handed shot on the left side. Also Getzlaf and Nash have shown great chemistry at past world championships. If they make up a line with Perry, who is magic with Getzlaf for the Ducks, he'll probably go on the left wing and being a right handed shot - DEADLY!

The Czechs will have Krejci, Hejduk or Hemsky they could put on the left wing shooting right.

The U.S. has Langenbrunner, Callahan, Drury, and Pavelski who could play this role. A lot of people were wondering at these choices for the U.S. team. Maybe this is why.

The Swedes just might throw Daniel Alfredsson there.

But I think the team that will most take advantage of this phenomenon, and it could win the gold for them, will be the Russians. The number one player on their team and the number one goal scorer in hockey, Ovechkin, a right handed shot who plays left wing. A lot of folks think Alex Semin would be just as good if he didn't play on the same team as OV. Can't have two first line left wingers. And many people will tell you the best pure goal scorer isn't either one of them, it's Kovalchuk, who is a right handed shot on the left wing playing in Atlanta. That's three lines with a deadly left winger who shoots right. But almost as deadly is a right winger who shoots left. They have Radulov and Morozov. And with guys like Datsyuk, Malkin, Fedorov and Kozlov at center watch out for a LOT of one timer goals from the Russians.

However, don't give up yet. I'm not sure the one-timer to the off-handed winger is quite as effective as the wrist shot from the point being tipped in. And EVERY team has an even chance of getting a lot of goals THAT way.

So it'll probably still come down to depth, goaltending, special teams, and basic things like face-offs, shot blocks, chemistry, not taking penalties, and even penalty shooting. And there's always those elusive "intangibles"... For almost all of these I give the nod to our Canadian boys. Here's why...

The U.S., Finland, Russia and maybe the Swedes have a better number one goalie statistically with Miller, Kiprusoff, Bryzgaloff and Lundqvist but we have Marty Brodeur playing at home! Could be better than all of them. Or we could even have Luongo playing in his home country AND home NHL city. You never know how much that could help.

For depth NObody comes close to Canada. It's always that way. Canada's second team is as good or better than the other teams. Canada could quite possibly win the gold if every single one of their first team players gets injured between now and Olympic time. And there ARE a lot of players on every roster who will be injured. This could be a large factor. This benefits Canada who have far superior second choices for every position. It's not likely any other country's second team would even win a game.

Chemistry is something I put a lot of stock in. You need to play the game to know that no matter how good a guy is, sometimes he clicks better with players who aren't the best players for that position. The best example will be Bergeron with Crosby. If anyone had seen these guys play together Bergeron would be a no-brainer of a pick. I'm embarrassed that I forgot about him when I picked MY Team Canada.

Same thing happened with Nash/Getzlaf/Heatley in the World Championships. I think it would be crazy to put this line together since we have the power play for the San Jose Sharks in Thornton/Marleau/Heatley and I think Getzlaf/Nash/Perry would be just as good. But we'll see.

Canada also has defensive chemistry, which just might be MORE important. They have Keith and Seabrook who play together in Chicago. And they have Neidermayer and Pronger were nominated for the Norris trophy while on the Ducks together! That's some powerful chemistry!

When you look at special teams you have to give the power play to the Russians. Theirs should be the best, NO question about it. But I don't think other teams will be far behind especially when you get into the second line of the power play. I would have to give second place to Sweden. Daniel/Henrik/Forsberg then Zetterberg/Holmstrom/Backstrom or maybe throw Alfresson out there? He'd be awesome with the twins! But Canada will be third at worst.

When it comes to penalty killing Canada will be number one. If I were to pick a perfect penalty killing line I think I might pick Kris Draper, Jordan Staal and maybe Tyler Kennedy, Darren Helm or Matt Cooke. But I only think ONE of those guys has the skills to be picked for the Canadian team. Coincidentally, his brother is on the almost perfect HIGHLY SKILLED penalty killer line for team Canada, which includes Brenden Morrow, Eric Staal and Mike Richards. This is a coach's wet dream of a checking line and it's even better for killing penalties. They will be rock solid on D and they will score short handed. Mark my words! This is why these guys were picked by Yzerman and his crew. These guys will make other teams wish they can wave off penalties called against Canada. That's if they're used in this role and I can't imagine they wouldn't be.

Penalty shooting is why we have Jonathan Teows. He hasn't played well enough this year to get on the team but a penalty shot could win an Olympic hockey game. As much of a travesty as some people think that is, you have to prepare for it. Teows is the best. Anywhere. Bar none. And he DOES have the skills to make the team.

One more thing to watch for on team Canada. I've been noticing Scott Neidermayer this year looks like he's at the end of his career. He's not making mistakes defensively but he's nowhere near the threat he used to be offensively. I've watched a TON of L.A. King games this year. In fact I've seen them play more than any other team. Drew Doughty belongs on this team and he will take over more and more of Neidermayer's minutes as the Olympics wear on. At least he should in my opinion. He is just a kid but he has plenty of international experience and he knows almost all of the guys on this team. I was very happy to see him picked.

So here's what I expect to happen at the Olympics. And, of course, this all depends on injuries.

Team Canada - Gold medal at home! Fans go crazy! Canada wins not one but 23 gold medals in Canada after getting shut out at Montreal and Calgary.

U.S. - Best defensive team in the tourney. They'll be REALLY hard to score on. But just can't put it all together. All their players will perform well but Parise, Kane, Brown, Kessel, Malone, Pavelski, Stastny, Ryan will be too young and will make too many small mistakes. They only have three guys with Olympic experience: Rafalski, Langenbrunner and Drury. Parise, Kane and Brown should finish near the top in scoring but the U.S. will finish out of the medals. At least I hope they will because I hate defensive hockey and I REALLY hate seeing offensive stars playing it. These guys won't be able to let their stars out. I fear that's what this team will be. Offensive guys being forced to play D. The U.S.'ll have to be satisfied with beating Canada at the World Jrs.

Russia - I always expect so much from Russia because they usually have the best offensive team in the tournament but then the players look like they're on vacation in the games and get knocked out early. Not this year??? They TURNED DOWN Yashin and Kovalev for this team. Not to mention Zherdev and Khabibulin. They're deep and when you look at their best players, they ARE the best players. Why they won't easily win the gold is because of the little things. I think Canada just plain has more heart. But Russia will give them a run for the gold. I think they'll have to settle for silver though. Can't wait to see Sergei Fedorov again!

Sweden - Any team that can refuse Franzen, Samuelsson and Hedman must be pretty good. They'll be great to watch but they'll wish they had picked Hedman for some extra offense from the D and to add some youth to an old bunch of guys. Not to say slow. They'll be skated around a lot and Lundqvist will be expected to stop a LOT of rubber. He can but I don't think he'll be good enough. I think they'll score a lot of goals but they'll have a lot of goals scored on them. In one of the shockers of the tournament they'll be beaten by the Czechs in round robin but will get revenge in the bronze medal match. It will be AWESOME to see Peter Forsberg play again!

Finland - A solid team. Just not spectacular. Kiprusoff will have to win the tourney MVP if they have any chance at a medal.

Czech Republic - The surprise of the tourney. If they had chosen Kotalik and Prospal for their team I think they might even have won a bronze. I will be REALLY interested to see Jagr play again. Is he a porked up floater or does he still have that Lemieux-like dominance. If he does, (which I highly doubt), Czechs will contend for a medal. They have a lot of guys that are, (or were), great NHLers but little known like Vasicek, Krejci, Fleischman, Michalek, Hejda, Erat, Plekanic, Polak, Cajanek and some who are well known like Jagr, Kaberle, Elias and Havlat. But I just don't think that'll be enough to beat the well established stars on the Swedish, Russian or Canadian teams.

So there you have it: Canada beat Russia for gold and Sweden beats the Czechs for bronze.

And I just hope Canada lays a beating on the U.S. for breaking our string of 5 World Junior Championships in a row. How dare they!