Survivor Nicaragua: Predictions

Another Survivor has started and it's looking interesting already. cbs.com has chosen to discontinue allowing people who are from other countries like Korea, or, I'm guessing, Nicaragua, to access the pre-Survivor videos they have to introduce us to the competitors. I found these to be very helpful the last few seasons in pre-judging the competitors and writing about them here. Now when I try to watch them a message comes up saying that they aren't available to people in my area.

So I chose to wait an entire episode before I tell you everything you need to know about these people. Also I've been warming up. I have been watching the first Survivor series on disks my good buddy Scott gave me. I didn't realize how much I'd missed. So this will undoubtedly prepare me to give you my personal snap judgements on all the people in Survivor Nicaragua. Age before beauty?

Espada tribe. (Oldsters)

Jimmy J - Gotta start with the oldest. He's a legend. Won college football championships as a player and coach then topped it off with a couple superbowls while coaching Dallas. A lot of the survivors will know him. I don't think he's a threat for the very reason he gave: NObody will give him the mil. He's already got several. If the oldsters are smart they'll keep him around for his coaching value. THEY might not need it as much, being older and wiser, but when the tribes merge, if they do, he'll probably have some major influence on the younger and more impressionable. I think a lot of his tribemates, like Jimmy T. and Marty are unwisely seeing this as a bad thing because they think he is actually trying to win the million. He's not. He might want the title of Survivor champ but if he DID win I think he'd give the money to one of the other competitors. He's PSYCHED for this. He says he's watched every minute of Survivor and he got the nervous butterfly heaves in the first episode. Something he probably saw from a lot of his players who were psyched to play games. I hope he lasts a while but think he's already a marked man. He's a proven winner but I think that's gonna be more of a detriment to him.

Danny Lembo- He looks like a mobster but that may not be a bad thing. Mob mentality could work in this game. Boston Rob tried to use it in Survivor IV in Tahiti. See? The research is paying off already. He's a real estate exec. who says he's very "connected" so he is probably trying to play up his mobster appearance. He says he'll be aggressive, cunning and devious and he'll thrive on beating everyone else. Hates modern politicians but idolizes Ronald Reagan. Reagan was an actor and this guy may be too. He does look the part though.

Jane Bright- A dog trainer who is hoping to be best in show. I'm sorry, that was too easy. lol. Says she's loveable like Rupert but smarter. Rupert was pretty darn smart so she's got to live up to her name. Lost her husband and wants to pay off her farm with the money. Says she's always busy, hates lazy folks and doesn't toodle around the house. She got the fire going right away. Listened to Probst when he said people who can't start fire shouldn't go on the show. That revved up her tribe. Marty said it reassured him that they are gonna win this thing. Southern drawl, gap-toothed farmer and the third oldest in the game. Might be underestimated and not voted for. I think she'll be strong and I think I like her already so others will too. She wants to "win America over" and I think she will. A VERY good shot to win this thing.

Jimmy T- He's a commercial fisherman with a low tolerance for imcompetence. He's already shown a hot temper, ("I'm not gonna NOT be heard here!"), on a tribe full of older people who you'd expect to be a bit more competent than, say, Fabio on the La Flor tribe. He'd better rein that in or he won't be long for Nicaragua. He won a nationwide contest to be on the show so I guess he's got some qualities America will like. But I have a feeling they're backing the wrong pony here. He's volatile and a bit of a jerk from early indications. I don't know what he's got against Jimmy J. but he made a point of telling everybody he was voting his ass off. Who does that before the first tribal council? Maybe he's an Eagles fan. Or maybe he's jealous. thought he'd be the celebrity but is "just another player here." He'll be gone fast if the oldsters are wisesters.

Marty Piombo- He's a tech. exec. whatever that means. Rescued a guy in the mountains in the winter. I didn't see any snowy mountains in the first episode unfortunately for him. Likes Lance Armstrong and says he'll be a cross between Boston Rob and Russel. Two of the best players of this game who I think would be the biggest assholes outside the game. I loved them on the show though. They added SO much! After Rob was ousted from the Marquesas I almost stopped watching. It was nice to see the good guys win that episode but I lost almost all interest after episode 8 after Rob and John said bye bye. It got boooo RING! I'm hoping Marty will keep this season interesting and be one of the villains. Called Wendy weird and I gotta agree with that. Has no idea why Jimmy J is there but was very fake friendly to him. Should be fun to watch this guy.

Wendy Jo- Goat rancher? Used to be a Lt. Col. in the army? And what was that get-up she was sporting? Did she think the first challenge would be barrel riding? She is one of the people I love to hate on Survivor that I call the blah blahs. People who are busy trying to convince themselves that "if you put your heart and mind to it you can do any.. blah blah blah..." While some people really believe in the power of positive thinking my opinion is that actions speak louder than words. The more positive you SAY you are that you are gonna succeed, the bigger a dick you appear when you fail. Winners don't need to constantly remind themselves and others how positive they are and how successful they are going to be. On the other hand, she was "blah blah blah" in another way. Her stated strategy was to put a muzzle on her yappety yap. Said she didn't want to gab gab gab and drive everybody cuh razy. How long did THAT last? She talked herself right off the show at the first tribal council.

Holly Hoffman- Swim coach twice voted coach of the year. Says that gives her a real knack for judging people accurately on first impression. She went right for Wendy cuz she got a "good vibe" from her. Then after Jimmy J. talked with her she questioned that alliance and avoided her till she voted her off. And at tribal council told EVERYBODY about the alliance like a dumbass. So far not so good.

Dr. Jill- An ER doctor. "How could I NOT be the sole survivor?" If she's an ER doc, I'm sure she has leadership skills and is good at organizing and working under pressure. She could NOT be the sole survivor by blending into the background and NOT using those skills. Like she did in episode 1. Where the hell was she? On the other hand she didn't screw anything up. The only good thing I saw from her was calling Jane "Survivor McGuyver."

Tyrone Davis- Fire captain. Inspired by God and parents. Hates plastic people. "If I want it, I'll get it done blah blah blah..." Could this guy be a bigger stereotype? I hope he shows us something more like his reaction to Wendy telling America her age: "You look so young!" (eye roll). And I liked when he said, "Wendy Jo gotta go." I think he'll be a boring nice guy but if he lets his badass flag fly I'm gonna like him.

Yve Rojas- Homemaker. Unassuming. Her daughters are her life. I think she'll be one of those bawling her eyes out at any mention of being apart from family. They always mystify me. How many people would PAY a million bucks for a 39-day break from their families? Hates not being acknowledged when she speaks. She won't have to worry about that because she doesn't speak that much. Was called on by Probst and said she could tell a lot about people and how they're checking each other out. Maybe THAT'S what she was doing the whole episode. Didn't notice her at all.

La Flor (Youngsters)

Kelly Shinn- Youngest and probably the hottest of this group. She's a nursing student/homecoming queen. She plans to play the popularity game although I think she might be outplayed at THAT by Brenda. Hates dirty fingernails. If she means her own I think she might be a lazy one. She'll need to look her best to overcome that. Didn't see much of her in episode one other than it looked like her blonde hair had black roots. I think going blonde is a pretty good strategy if that is what it was.

Jud "Fabio" Birza- Could give Robb from Survivor Thailand a run for the STUPIDEST survivor ever. Already parallels like foot injuries and boarding. He's a drummer for a band called Space Funk Odyssey. Says he's a good swimmer. Better than Ozzy. He'd better be cuz he won't be solving any of the brain teasers. When Kelly B revealed her prosthetic leg he said, "How do you tell it to move?" I hope one of the other band members write the lyrics for Space Funk Odyssey.

Alina Wilson- Listed Paris Hilton as her inspiration. Of course she was joking. Doesn't like people calling her "sweetie" or "hun." I'm like that too. Especially from strangers it's just a blatant attempt to gain dominance. Don't call me that unless I've known you a long time. But then she said, "Nothing stops me when I put my mind to...blah blah blah..." Noticed Kelly B's limp and said, "She might have a hip problem?" Then found the clue to the hidden idol with her and wished she had found it alone. I liked that she doesn't want to be associated with Kelly B because she will get a sympathy vote. I think I might like her despite being a blah blah.

Ben Henry (Benry)- Club promoter. Runs 2 businesses. He's out to show the world what it's like to be a winner. "If you look good you play good and you get paid good." Obviously very cocky. High 5ed everybody and introduced himself as Benry when the young tribe got to camp but didn't notice him after that. I'm sure we'll see more of his cockiness in later episodes.

Chase Rice- Pro Race Car Jackman. He figures people will trust him cuz he's a southerner. He might be right because instantly Shannon set up an alliance with him. He agreed with Shannon that they don't want a woman winning this thing. Then moments later Brenda said she liked his "spirit." Had intended to play an honest game but Brenda blew that with her womanly wiles. He's hooked, poor guy. Says for some reason he "trusted" her. Now what's he gonna do? He might be smart enough to play both sides though. He said to Jud that he looked like he might be good in the water. That was a sharp observation. He's gotta choose between the woman hater and the man user. I hope this country boy just abandons BOTH his early alliances. We shall see. I think he might be a guy I pull for this season. So maybe I trust southerners too.

Kelly B- Amputee. Will get a lot of sympathy. Not only for the leg but for her Dad who recently died giving aid to Haiti. Already Shannon the misogynist has stated that he'd just give her the money if he were in the final few with her. But quickly said he'll have to make sure she doesn't make it that far. Her calling everyone together looked pretty obviously like a ploy to get the sympathy vote. I think she wasted it too early. Already a lot of people are saying that her prosthetic leg won't change anything. NaOnka wants a foot race; Tyrone says they both have the same rules; Alina wishes she didn't have to share the immunity clue with her. But it looks like she might not need the sympathy. She's an Iron Man Triathlon finisher. Found the immunity idol clue with Alina and they were, in her own words, "stumped" by it. I didn't say it, she did! At any rate I think she'll be capable but whether she can turn a weakness into a strength or vice versa will be the barometer on how long she sticks around.

Brenda Lowe- Probst and I got the same impression from this hotty: "She is a sort of black widow." She already looks like she wants her first victim to be Chase. Says she's "used to guys doing what she says." "Chase likes me but he's clueless." She better hope so. I could see Shannon cluing in to the alliance and advising Chase against it. She's another blah blah. "Nothing stops me when I get an idea into my blah blah blah..." Very easy for beauty pageant winners to say. But I don't think she'll just depend on the boys to carry her along. Found the golden medallion and climbed a tree to get it. So she's not helpless on her own. But her mouth and the confidence to use it that comes to beauty pageant winners might be her undoing. When asked if she would have used the golden medallion for the challenge she instantly said the oldsters were wrong not to have used it. She further schooled them on how they have to "...think of now, not tomorrow. You're here to win!" I think she'll be a bad girl but she won't be able to hide it well enough. Won't last long if she can't.

NaOnka Mixon- P.E. teacher. No kids. Loves dogs. I am TOTALLY on her side after these three facts! Doesn't feel any sympathy for Kelly B. Bring her on! But she IS worried about others giving her sympathy. Haven't seen much of her yet but I think she might be a strong sister. If she doesn't go overboard, like the stereotypical strong sister, I'll be pulling for her.

Matthew "Sash" Lenahan- Supposed to be funny. Says he's like Tyson with the one-liners. I've noticed a pattern on Survivor: anyone who said they were gonna be funny hasn't been. I fully expect this from Sash too. His "funniest" quote so far is, "Great beach, great waves, beautiful girls... it doesn't get much better than that, right?" Meh. Distance runner so that might help. Thinks he's awesome but he might be as awesome as he is funny. We shall see...

Shannon Elkins- I think he'll be the most interesting guy on the show. I fear that he won't be around long enough to peel back all his skins, however. He's in pest control. Obviously hates women. Has made such comments as, "We already get owned in marriage." "A guy needs to sack up and take this thing." And dreads the day he sees coming when America has a female president. Misogyny central! He will probably try to exterminate the women like as many queen insects. He hates dumb people. Instantly disliked Jud and gave him the name Fabio. I thought this was extremely interesting since Shannon looks a whole lot more like Fabio than Jud. I mean look at the body! Borrow some of Kelly S's blonde hair dye and there ya go! Says he wants to win Survivor to put another notch on his belt and that he'll be like Russel only much prettier. I'm interested in the Freudian aspects of this dude. Everyone immediately knows he hates women. Calls himself pretty and has a name more often used for girls. Instantly allied with the hunkiest of the men on his tribe. Maybe he's struggling with his own sexuality. I bet he could spend hours and hours on the couch. He will certainly add some colour to this season!

It looks like it'll be a good season! A few new things I've noticed: the age groupings, the gold medallion, an amputee, a really famous person and crotch smudges for the guys walking around in their undies. Not sure if these will make it better or worse but am looking forward to finding out.

So I vote for Chase and Jane, I don't like Benry or Holly.
Interesting villains- Shannon and Brenda.
Could last a long time- Chase, Jane, Kelly B, Marty.
Alliances to watch for: Tyrone/NaOnka brotha and sista. Hey it happens. Only time it didn't was when Ghandia tried to get, what, a sexual harrassment vote by accusing Ted? And they WERE a black alliance before that.
Danny/Dr. Jill/Yve. I don't think they will last long without some sort of alliance. Danny says he's connected so make some connections. Who better than a doctor? Yve needs somebody's coattails to ride. This alliance could make them all contenders.

Sole Survivor- Marty. The person I vote for never wins and I don't think I'll be voting for Marty. But I think he'll be a good player. He won't play good, but he'll be a good player.

Just my opinion.